Early predictions...

So rehearsals have begun in Malmö.  Is anyone else missing the All Kinds of Everything team?  I'm not sure what happened, but one day the website went off line and the blog hasn't been updated since Baku.  A shame, as their coverage was great.

With AKOE no more, escnation gets my vote, for having some critical distance and irony.  The others are all so earnest.

And so to predictions.  Both semis are very hard to call this year, and the rehearsals so far haven't made it any easier.

In semi 1, I'm starting off with the assumption that Russia and Ukraine are invincible.  If Russia could qualify from the dreaded number 2 slot with Lost and Forgotten, then I can't conceive of them failing to make the cut is year.  Meanwhile, Ukraine has a song which I'm not crazy about but which follows the fail safe Ukrainian strategy of OTT staging and a dramatic tune, so no fear there.

I'm not mad about Denmark either but there is so much momentum behind this entry and it's not altogether terrible so my expectation is for Emellie to make it.

We have all of the FYRs bar Macedonia in this semi so it's a safe bet that a few of them will make it, but probably not all if previous years are anything to go by, and we know that not even Serbia is invincible, following Moscow 2009.  I like Slovenia a lot but this country seems not to benefit too often from votes from fellow former countrymen and Hannah has a poor draw, so I fear she will be disappointed.  Montenegro meanwhile may well have cracked it this year, with a song that will certainly stand out and that has had success in the region already.  The Serbian entry is for me one of their worst ever, but that's a plum draw and it's upbeat so I think they'll make it.

With the eye-catching staging and actually a pretty good song, which sounds nice in Romanian, and with a good draw and a decent track record, I think we'll see Moldova in the final again.

I'm going to go out on a limb and plump for Cyprus.  Spain managed top ten with a simple, powerful ballad not performed in English in 2012, thanks to the juries.

The Netherlands.  In my opinion this is the best song in the competition.  We know that the best song doesn't always win, and we know too that the Netherlands has an appalling recent record, but given that the juries are made up of music professionals, Birds really ought to be scoring very high with them, high enough even to counter a low televoting score.

Belarus.  Eurovision's favourite authoritarian state struggles to get out of the semis, and I preferred the song that actually won the Belarus national final, but rehearsals seem to be going well for this mid-noughties throwback.

And finally, Estonia.  It's a sweet song and Estonia's record isn't bad with ballads.

So, in:

Russia
Ukraine
Denmark
Serbia
Montenegro
Moldova
Cyprus
Netherlands
Belarus
Estonia

Out:

Slovenia
Austria
Lithuania
Belgium
Ireland
Croatia

Reading this back I am a) a bit depressed and b) uncertain.  What do you think?