Second semi predictions. Sorry, Valentina...

Seems I should nail my colours to the mast about the second semi before the first semi tonight gives me a clue...

I am a Eurovision fan after all, which means I love a microstate, but I can't see San Marino making it out of this semi.  I would love to be wrong but Valentina has suffered more than anyone else from SVT's decisions about running order, the staging looks iffy, and all this on top of the fact that this semi is in of itself hard to get out of.

All three Caucasian countries will be through.  We know they are not immune to being ejected, but Armenia and Georgia have only ever failed when their entries are truly awful.

The three Scandinavians will also qualify.  They are all easily strong enough and can give mutual support in the voting.

Which only leaves four slots.

Israel will make it I think.  Looking at Israel's inconsistent qualification, we see that whenever they have sent a typical Israeli ballad, they have got through, whereas it has been their other entries, be they up-beat or out of left-field, that have failed to make the cut.

Greece.  When has Greece ever failed?  There are enough people watching semis for whom moustaches and chants about alcohol are enough to make them pick up the phone.

Bulgaria.  I do not get this song at all, but somehow this same song back in 2007 was the only qualifier that Bulgaria has ever had, and then went on to come fifth, so I am assuming this appeals to the tastes of a sufficient portion of Europeans to make it into the final on Saturday.

And the final slot.  I think this will be Romania.  It is a terrifying entry but is going last and from a country that has never failed to qualify.

So in:

Azerbaijan
Armenia
Georgia
Iceland
Finland
Norway
Israel
Greece
Bulgaria
Romania

And out:

Switzerland.  Could have stood a chance were it not so very bland.
Hungary.  Borderline, actually.
Latvia.
Malta.
Albania
FYR Macedonia.
San Marino