Great piece today on escnation exploding the classic 'the same countries qualify every year' myth. Not much I can add to it.
Meanwhile, poor Valentina. I take no pleasure in being right about San Marino's chances but that draw did it for her I think. Fine performance. I wonder if she will be able to console herself with coming close to the top ten and thus giving San Marino its best-ever result.
Friday, 17 May 2013
Tuesday, 14 May 2013
Second semi predictions. Sorry, Valentina...
Seems I should nail my colours to the mast about the second semi before the first semi tonight gives me a clue...
I am a Eurovision fan after all, which means I love a microstate, but I can't see San Marino making it out of this semi. I would love to be wrong but Valentina has suffered more than anyone else from SVT's decisions about running order, the staging looks iffy, and all this on top of the fact that this semi is in of itself hard to get out of.
All three Caucasian countries will be through. We know they are not immune to being ejected, but Armenia and Georgia have only ever failed when their entries are truly awful.
The three Scandinavians will also qualify. They are all easily strong enough and can give mutual support in the voting.
Which only leaves four slots.
Israel will make it I think. Looking at Israel's inconsistent qualification, we see that whenever they have sent a typical Israeli ballad, they have got through, whereas it has been their other entries, be they up-beat or out of left-field, that have failed to make the cut.
Greece. When has Greece ever failed? There are enough people watching semis for whom moustaches and chants about alcohol are enough to make them pick up the phone.
Bulgaria. I do not get this song at all, but somehow this same song back in 2007 was the only qualifier that Bulgaria has ever had, and then went on to come fifth, so I am assuming this appeals to the tastes of a sufficient portion of Europeans to make it into the final on Saturday.
And the final slot. I think this will be Romania. It is a terrifying entry but is going last and from a country that has never failed to qualify.
So in:
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Georgia
Iceland
Finland
Norway
Israel
Greece
Bulgaria
Romania
And out:
Switzerland. Could have stood a chance were it not so very bland.
Hungary. Borderline, actually.
Latvia.
Malta.
Albania
FYR Macedonia.
San Marino
I am a Eurovision fan after all, which means I love a microstate, but I can't see San Marino making it out of this semi. I would love to be wrong but Valentina has suffered more than anyone else from SVT's decisions about running order, the staging looks iffy, and all this on top of the fact that this semi is in of itself hard to get out of.
All three Caucasian countries will be through. We know they are not immune to being ejected, but Armenia and Georgia have only ever failed when their entries are truly awful.
The three Scandinavians will also qualify. They are all easily strong enough and can give mutual support in the voting.
Which only leaves four slots.
Israel will make it I think. Looking at Israel's inconsistent qualification, we see that whenever they have sent a typical Israeli ballad, they have got through, whereas it has been their other entries, be they up-beat or out of left-field, that have failed to make the cut.
Greece. When has Greece ever failed? There are enough people watching semis for whom moustaches and chants about alcohol are enough to make them pick up the phone.
Bulgaria. I do not get this song at all, but somehow this same song back in 2007 was the only qualifier that Bulgaria has ever had, and then went on to come fifth, so I am assuming this appeals to the tastes of a sufficient portion of Europeans to make it into the final on Saturday.
And the final slot. I think this will be Romania. It is a terrifying entry but is going last and from a country that has never failed to qualify.
So in:
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Georgia
Iceland
Finland
Norway
Israel
Greece
Bulgaria
Romania
And out:
Switzerland. Could have stood a chance were it not so very bland.
Hungary. Borderline, actually.
Latvia.
Malta.
Albania
FYR Macedonia.
San Marino
Friday, 10 May 2013
Thursday, 9 May 2013
Early predictions...
So rehearsals have begun in Malmö. Is anyone else missing the All Kinds of Everything team? I'm not sure what happened, but one day the website went off line and the blog hasn't been updated since Baku. A shame, as their coverage was great.
With AKOE no more, escnation gets my vote, for having some critical distance and irony. The others are all so earnest.
And so to predictions. Both semis are very hard to call this year, and the rehearsals so far haven't made it any easier.
In semi 1, I'm starting off with the assumption that Russia and Ukraine are invincible. If Russia could qualify from the dreaded number 2 slot with Lost and Forgotten, then I can't conceive of them failing to make the cut is year. Meanwhile, Ukraine has a song which I'm not crazy about but which follows the fail safe Ukrainian strategy of OTT staging and a dramatic tune, so no fear there.
I'm not mad about Denmark either but there is so much momentum behind this entry and it's not altogether terrible so my expectation is for Emellie to make it.
We have all of the FYRs bar Macedonia in this semi so it's a safe bet that a few of them will make it, but probably not all if previous years are anything to go by, and we know that not even Serbia is invincible, following Moscow 2009. I like Slovenia a lot but this country seems not to benefit too often from votes from fellow former countrymen and Hannah has a poor draw, so I fear she will be disappointed. Montenegro meanwhile may well have cracked it this year, with a song that will certainly stand out and that has had success in the region already. The Serbian entry is for me one of their worst ever, but that's a plum draw and it's upbeat so I think they'll make it.
With the eye-catching staging and actually a pretty good song, which sounds nice in Romanian, and with a good draw and a decent track record, I think we'll see Moldova in the final again.
I'm going to go out on a limb and plump for Cyprus. Spain managed top ten with a simple, powerful ballad not performed in English in 2012, thanks to the juries.
The Netherlands. In my opinion this is the best song in the competition. We know that the best song doesn't always win, and we know too that the Netherlands has an appalling recent record, but given that the juries are made up of music professionals, Birds really ought to be scoring very high with them, high enough even to counter a low televoting score.
Belarus. Eurovision's favourite authoritarian state struggles to get out of the semis, and I preferred the song that actually won the Belarus national final, but rehearsals seem to be going well for this mid-noughties throwback.
And finally, Estonia. It's a sweet song and Estonia's record isn't bad with ballads.
So, in:
Russia
Ukraine
Denmark
Serbia
Montenegro
Moldova
Cyprus
Netherlands
Belarus
Estonia
Out:
Slovenia
Austria
Lithuania
Belgium
Ireland
Croatia
Reading this back I am a) a bit depressed and b) uncertain. What do you think?
With AKOE no more, escnation gets my vote, for having some critical distance and irony. The others are all so earnest.
And so to predictions. Both semis are very hard to call this year, and the rehearsals so far haven't made it any easier.
In semi 1, I'm starting off with the assumption that Russia and Ukraine are invincible. If Russia could qualify from the dreaded number 2 slot with Lost and Forgotten, then I can't conceive of them failing to make the cut is year. Meanwhile, Ukraine has a song which I'm not crazy about but which follows the fail safe Ukrainian strategy of OTT staging and a dramatic tune, so no fear there.
I'm not mad about Denmark either but there is so much momentum behind this entry and it's not altogether terrible so my expectation is for Emellie to make it.
We have all of the FYRs bar Macedonia in this semi so it's a safe bet that a few of them will make it, but probably not all if previous years are anything to go by, and we know that not even Serbia is invincible, following Moscow 2009. I like Slovenia a lot but this country seems not to benefit too often from votes from fellow former countrymen and Hannah has a poor draw, so I fear she will be disappointed. Montenegro meanwhile may well have cracked it this year, with a song that will certainly stand out and that has had success in the region already. The Serbian entry is for me one of their worst ever, but that's a plum draw and it's upbeat so I think they'll make it.
With the eye-catching staging and actually a pretty good song, which sounds nice in Romanian, and with a good draw and a decent track record, I think we'll see Moldova in the final again.
I'm going to go out on a limb and plump for Cyprus. Spain managed top ten with a simple, powerful ballad not performed in English in 2012, thanks to the juries.
The Netherlands. In my opinion this is the best song in the competition. We know that the best song doesn't always win, and we know too that the Netherlands has an appalling recent record, but given that the juries are made up of music professionals, Birds really ought to be scoring very high with them, high enough even to counter a low televoting score.
Belarus. Eurovision's favourite authoritarian state struggles to get out of the semis, and I preferred the song that actually won the Belarus national final, but rehearsals seem to be going well for this mid-noughties throwback.
And finally, Estonia. It's a sweet song and Estonia's record isn't bad with ballads.
So, in:
Russia
Ukraine
Denmark
Serbia
Montenegro
Moldova
Cyprus
Netherlands
Belarus
Estonia
Out:
Slovenia
Austria
Lithuania
Belgium
Ireland
Croatia
Reading this back I am a) a bit depressed and b) uncertain. What do you think?
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